The occupations in the model are generally based on the Swedish Standard Classification of Occupations (SSYK 2012), although certain professions are combined into broader groups, such as legal professions, for example. Management roles and occupations with fewer than 3000 gainfully employed individuals as of November 2019 are merged into one category. The forecast covers the years 2022 and 2026, and encompasses approximately 170 occupations, including the category. The model employs two distinct projections - one for the supply of job vacancies and the other for in-demand roles within each occupation.
The labour supply in the model consists of all employed individuals. The gainfully employed population is categorized into different skill groups based on their education level, educational orientation, and age. Using historical data, the Swedish Public Employment Service calculates the inflows and outflows of these skill groups and projects the number of employed individuals in each group using population projections from Statistics Sweden. For the base year 2019, the proportion of employed individuals within each skill profile for each forecasted occupation is calculated. These proportions are multiplied with the corresponding forecasted number of individuals in the profile for 2022 and 2026.
Assumptions: Educational capacity planning and preferences for different educational paths remain constant over time. Similarly, the retirement age within each profile and employers' preferences for competencies remain constant over time. Thus, the model does not (yet) take into account the skills shift. [1].
The model's labour demand encompasses the number of gainfully employed individuals for each occupation and year and the number of job advertisements. The overall demand per industry is projected based on historical data and Statistics Sweden's population forecasts and is manually adjusted based on qualitative assessments of the economic situation. The total demand for each industry is allocated among the various occupations based on their projected proportions within the industry.
After allocating the demand, a competition index is generated for each occupation and year by comparing it to the supply. This index is in relation to the competition within all other occupations. For more details, please contact the Swedish Public Employment Service's Analysis Department via the designated function mailbox.
[1] The model serves as a simplified representation of reality, built upon certain assumptions. It's a work in progress, and hopefully, in the future, the model can incorporate changes that are currently kept constant.